I think it's expected, given they basically said they were taking this entire year off...
Don't know how long the arbitration will take... and don't expect it will be likely provide any real value, even with a hands down win (which is reasonable to expect), given the lack of any enforcement mechanism. Winning a judgment is one thing. Enforcing it is another. But, it will matter to have the issue decided on the merits, and the moral backing it provides will resolve a couple of issues that probably won't be able to be resolved as easily without it.
Not fast... is a reasonable enough guess.
I also think it will probably take a while for the PI to get their military capabilities up to par, to the level where you might expect them to be able to succeed in defending themselves... by themselves. I think they are focused on getting there... and will succeed given the time... but, it will take time.
Those are risk factors... where time is on their side, given they are aware of the situation, and doing enough of what they need to do. The timing... is still the key issue. I doubt it will be the investment at risk that will drive timing, rather than timing in those other things that will smooth the path well enough... in time.
This is going to require a lot of patience, still.
I think you'll need to see them in a position to be able to proceed with and follow through on their exploration efforts... before you can expect to see the stock moving.
It won't be this year, we know.
I don't think that will be next year, either...
I do think you'll see them in position to make a decision and act on it, well before Malampaya runs dry... and that's probably the timing you should be considering, since it seems that's the way the government is considering it.
From an investors perspective, the risk of doing nothing is much larger than the risk of China doing something that they probably shouldn't... including even that realizing the risk will be a thing that tends to provide its own solutions... which is not me suggesting they should move any more quickly than makes sense.
Nothing will happen prior to the arbitration being completed...
Once that's done... nothing will happen until they're ready for it to happen...
And, then, it will be the next year... since it takes that much time to arrange all the things that need arranging, and get it all lined up for the right time to get it done...
So, I'll call it... maybe planning for drilling in 2016...
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